Global Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Introduction | Three Core Convictions | United States | China | Eurozone | Japan | Investment Implications
Charts only
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Exhibit 3: CPI Inflation Has Reaccelerated Due to the Iran War
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
Note: As of April 2026. Data for October 2025 were not reported due to lapse in US federal government funding. Core goods represent ~24% of core CPI, shelter represents ~44%, and services ex-shelter and ex-energy services represent ~32%.
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Exhibit 4: 2025 US Nonfarm Payroll Growth Was the Weakest since 2009 (ex-Pandemic)
As of April 2026
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
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Exhibit 5: Top 1% of Households Have 13x the Net Worth of the Bottom
50%
(REPLACE CHART WITH IMAGE)
As of December 2025
Source: Lazard, Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics
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Exhibit 6: Democrats Are Highly Likely to Gain Control of the House
(REPLACE CHART WITH IMAGE)
As of May 2026
In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a slim 217–212 majority with one independent who caucuses with the GOP and three seats vacant. In the Senate, Republicans lead with 53-47 and are favored to maintain their majority. Since 1960, the ruling party has lost an average of 26 seats in midterms. The incumbent party only gained seats twice: 2002 (R) and 1998 (D).
Source: Lazard Geopolitical Advisory
Exhibit 7: Private Sector Housing Data Suggest Much Sharper Home Price Declines REPLACE CHART WITH IMAGE
As of April 2026
Source: Centaline, Morgan Stanley
Exhibit 8: Chinese Consumer Confidence Remains Near Record Low Levels
As of April 2026
Source: Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 9: China’s Trade Surplus Reached $1.18 Trillion in 2025
As of December 2025
Source: China Customs General Administration, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 10: Natural Gas One Month Futures Prices Have Risen ~50% since the US and Israel Attacked Iran
As of 26 May 2026
Benchmark natural gas refers to the Virtual Trading Point Netherlands Title Transfer Facility.
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 11: European Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply since the Iran War Began
Source: Bloomberg, European Commission
Note: As of May 2026
Exhibit 12: Markets Suggest ~53 bps of ECB Rate Hikes through December 2026
As of 29 May 2026
Markets imply an 89% chance of a 25-bps rate hike at the 11 June policy meeting and a 19% chance of an additional 25-bps rate hike at the 23 July policy meeting.
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 14: Markets Suggest ~43 bps of Additional BoJ Rate Hikes through December 2026
As of 29 May 2026
Markets imply a 79% chance of a 25-bps hike through the 16 June meeting and a 94% chance of a 25-bps hike through the 31 July meeting.
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 17: … But US Equities Also Deliver Higher Returns on Capital than Other Markets
As of 29 May 2026
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 18: The Most Leveraged EMs Have Less Debt than the United States
As of 2024
Source: Haver Analytics, IMF Global Debt Database
* For Mexico and New Zealand, debt indicated above is Central Government Debt. All other nations are General Government Debt
