Summary
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- Negotiations between the United States and Iran continued. The Strait of Hormuz remained open with traffic accelerating sharply, but Iran’s attack on a Singaporean-flagged commercial cargo vessel on Thursday highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation rose in line with expectations, while final sales to private domestic purchasers—a key metric for the underlying economic health—were revised materially downward.
- Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data were mixed across developed markets. With energy prices falling rapidly toward pre-Iran war levels, I expect PMIs to improve in the second half of the year. I also expect services PMIs—which were hit harder than manufacturing PMIs—to rebound as discretionary spending improves.
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Published on 26 June 2026.
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