Summary
Markets remained resilient in the first half of 2025 despite significant US policy uncertainty. In his latest mid-year outlook, Chief Market Strategist Ronald Temple explains why this could change in the second half of the year.
- The US economy is likely to drift in a stagflationary direction, with higher inflation and slower GDP growth through 2026.
- China is in its fifth year of a real estate crisis. Absent major fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is likely to decelerate further with deflation becoming more entrenched, creating longer-term systemic risks.
- Europe appeared poised for better growth this year but will likely suffer marginally in the near term due to US trade policy shifts.
- Japan’s inflation has remained above the 2% target for nearly four years, strengthening the case for a multi-year normalization process, while governance reforms continue to pave the way for a more shareholder-friendly environment.
In 2025, investors will need to question many long-held assumptions about the global economic and investing landscape. Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist, shares his analysis of the forces that are most likely to impact markets in this unusually uncertain year.