Skip to Main Content
Kontaktieren Sie uns

Venezuela re-emerged as a geopolitical focal point after US actions led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 and the swift appointment of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president. While the situation remains fluid, both US authorities and remaining Venezuelan leadership have signaled an interest in maintaining stability. In the following Q&A, we explore what this might mean for the country, its path forward, and global markets.

Venezuela moved back into focus following US actions that resulted in the capture and detention of President Nicolás Maduro and subsequent engagement between remaining Venezuelan leadership and US authorities. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was appointed interim president by the Supreme Court, while statements from both sides pointed toward efforts to preserve stability and maintain working relations during a transition period.

The situation remains fluid, but the developments represent an escalation in Venezuela-related geopolitical risk and have increased near-term political uncertainty for the country and Latin America more broadly. The United States announced its intention to “run Venezuela” without committing to having any troops on the ground due to the domestic political constraints. We believe the extent to which this strategy is successful remains to be seen.

In our view, the United States can exercise power by (1) maintaining/lifting the oil embargo and other sanctions; (2) threatening to conduct another military strike against any resistant leader; and (3) offering incentives to the remaining elite. The latter may already be evident given the administration has not pushed for immediate elections (change of power) while also asserting that the leader of the democratic opposition—Nobel laureate María Corina Machado—in Venezuela lacks domestic support.

Emerging markets broadly absorbed the news with limited risk-off behavior.

Emerging markets equities reacted constructively rather than defensively as futures on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index reached all-time highs. Emerging markets equities, led by Asia, remained resilient, with only limited and short-lived pressure in parts of Latin America and no evidence of broad-based de-risking across the asset class. Venezuelan assets remain effectively inaccessible to global equity investors, limiting direct transmission channels. The last time Venezuela was included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was between 1994 and 2006 before MSCI removed it due to ongoing investability restrictions and low liquidity.

Venezuelan and Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (or PDVSA, the state-owned oil and gas company) bond prices jumped about 7-to-9 points on the news. After the expected initial rally, we think Venezuelan bonds offer further upside potential as many risks remain. The restructuring of the country’s failing oil infrastructure is expected to take years along with any possible reversal of migration patterns and improving labor resources—roughly five million Venezuelans now reside in Colombia—for example.

In our view, the country’s debt servicing capacity will improve significantly if the oil sector is opened again to private investment, better management, and the oil embargo is lifted. In our opinion, it is in the interest of both the current elite in Venezuela and the United States to let petrodollars flow again. 

Venezuela’s oil sector, its most important economic lever, is likely to remain the central determinant of the country’s economic trajectory, and recent political shifts create the possibility—but not the guarantee—of a gradual reopening.

While operational capacity has eroded after years of underinvestment, sanctions, and mismanagement, the country still holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves. If the political transition stabilizes and US policy shifts toward easing or lifting the embargo, Venezuela could invite private capital, foreign technical partners, and improved management back into the sector. This has the potential to allow production to recover from extremely low levels, increase export revenues, and significantly improve debt‑servicing capacity over time. The pace of change, however, depends on political clarity, sanctions policy, and whether a credible operational framework can be reestablished.

Current US policy appears focused on reinforcing the country’s role in the Western Hemisphere, addressing cross-border security concerns, and countering the deepening presence of other powers within Latin America. Depending on how events unfold, the US may increase pressure across the Americas.

At the same time, Latin American governments, which have seen a shift toward more US-friendly administrations in recent years—Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile being key examples—may reassess the strategic balance between the United States and non‑Western partners, particularly regarding security cooperation, energy investment, minerals, and financing.

Elections are scheduled over the next 12 months in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Peru. In our opinion, most of these elections will likely follow the same trend as in the rest of the region and elect right-of-center governments, which could potentially lead to more business-friendly policies. Brazil could be an exception given President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s chances for re-election and we think Peru will probably face a very fragmented race (currently there are more than 30 registered candidates, opening the door to surprises). US intervention in Venezuela could boost left-leaning candidates in Colombia, particularly if rhetoric and actions against President Gustavo Petro continue. 

Our outlook for emerging markets has not changed. We remain focused on company-specific fundamentals and bottom-up stock selection, and we continue to look through short-term geopolitical volatility where investment theses remain intact.

We do not expect the events in Venezuela to have a meaningful impact on asset prices of other Latin American countries or general risk premia. The direct economic impact of Venezuela in the region is likely to be minimal given very limited trade linkages. Instead, we expect asset price movements to be driven by domestic developments in the region.

Despite strong performance in 2025, we believe emerging markets continue to look attractive, supported by a broadly constructive backdrop and ongoing differentiation across countries and companies. 

Important Information
Published on 14 January 2026

The performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Lazard Asset Management LLC or its affiliates (“Lazard”) to be reliable. Lazard makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the published date and are subject to change.

Allocations and security selection are subject to change.

No risk management technique or process can guarantee return or eliminate risk in any market environment.

Equity securities will fluctuate in price; the value of your investment will thus fluctuate, and this may result in a loss. Securities in certain non-domestic countries may be less liquid, more volatile, and less subject to governmental supervision than in one’s home market. The values of these securities may be affected by changes in currency rates, application of a country’s specific tax laws, changes in government administration, and economic and monetary policy. Emerging markets securities carry special risks, such as less developed or less efficient trading markets, a lack of company information, and differing auditing and legal standards. The securities markets of emerging markets countries can be extremely volatile; performance can also be influenced by political, social, and economic factors affecting companies in these countries.

An investment in bonds carries risk. If interest rates rise, bond prices usually decline. The longer a bond’s maturity, the greater the impact a change in interest rates can have on its price. If you do not hold a bond until maturity, you may experience a gain or loss when you sell. Bonds also carry the risk of default, which is the risk that the issuer is unable to make further income and principal payments. Other risks, including inflation risk, call risk, and pre-payment risk, also apply.

High yield securities (also referred to as “junk bonds”) inherently have a higher degree of market risk, default risk, and credit risk.

Derivatives transactions, including those entered into for hedging purposes, may reduce returns or increase volatility, perhaps substantially. Forward currency contracts, and other derivatives investments are subject to the risk of default by the counterparty, can be illiquid and are subject to many of the risks of, and can be highly sensitive to changes in the value of, the related currency or other reference asset. As such, a small investment could have a potentially large impact on performance. Use of derivatives transactions, even if entered into for hedging purposes, may cause losses greater than if an account had not engaged in such transactions.

Small- and mid-capitalization stocks may be subject to higher degrees of risk, their earnings may be less predictable, their prices more volatile, and their liquidity less than that of large-capitalization or more established companies’ securities.

Mention of these securities should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell the securities. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will prove to be, profitable, or that the investment decisions we make in the future will be profitable or equal to the investment performance of securities referenced herein. There is no assurance that any securities referenced herein are currently held in the portfolio or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities mentioned may not represent the entire portfolio.

Investments in global currencies are subject to the general risks associated with fixed income investing, such as interest rate risk, as well as the risks associated with non-domestic investments, which include, but are not limited to, currency fluctuation, devaluation, and confiscatory taxation. Furthermore, certain investment techniques required to access certain emerging markets currencies, such as swaps, forwards, structured notes, and loans of portfolio securities, involve risk that the counterparty to such instruments or transactions will become insolvent or otherwise default on its obligation to perform as agreed. In the event of such default, an investor may have limited recourse against the counterparty and may experience delays in recovery or loss.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of emerging markets country indices including: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. The index is unmanaged and has no fees. One cannot invest directly in an index.

Certain information included herein is derived by Lazard in part from an MSCI index or indices (the “Index Data”). However, MSCI has not reviewed this product or report, and does not endorse or express any opinion regarding this product or report or any analysis or other information contained herein or the author or source of any such information or analysis. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any Index Data or data derived therefrom.

Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target,” “intent,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

This document reflects the views of Lazard Asset Management LLC or its affiliates (“Lazard”) based upon information believed to be reliable as of the publication date. There is no guarantee that any forecast or opinion will be realized. This document is provided by Lazard Asset Management LLC or its affiliates (“Lazard”) for informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice or a recommendation relating to any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service, or investment product. Investments in securities, derivatives, and commodities involve risk, will fluctuate in price, and may result in losses. Certain assets held in Lazard’s investment portfolios, in particular alternative investment portfolios, can involve high degrees of risk and volatility when compared to other assets. Similarly, certain assets held in Lazard’s investment portfolios may trade in less liquid or efficient markets, which can affect investment performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed herein are subject to change, and may differ from the views of other Lazard investment professionals. 

This document is intended only for persons residing in jurisdictions where its distribution or availability is consistent with local laws and Lazard’s local regulatory authorizations. Please visit www.lazardassetmanagement.com/global-disclosure for the specific Lazard entities that have issued this document and the scope of their authorized activities.

Kontakt aufnehmen

Unser Expertenteam wird sich gerne mit Ihnen in Verbindung setzen.

Kontaktieren Sie uns