Übersicht
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The United States (US) and European Union (EU) agreed to the outlines of a trade accord that I believe will lead to higher US inflation, lower EU growth, and lower corporate profit margins in both economies.
- The Fed held rates constant as expected. While markets anticipate two rate cuts by year end, I continue to expect no rate cuts at all as inflation increases and unemployment remains stable.
- China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reports were weaker than expected. I expect this weakness to persist as the sharp increases in US tariffs on Chinese exports cut into US demand.
Important Information
Published on August 1, 2025.
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