Übersicht
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- US labor market data remained resilient, but I continue to believe that labor markets are more fragile than suggested by high-level figures like the unemployment rate.
- Eurozone inflation surprised on the upside, likely because of Easter holidays falling in April this year. I expect economic deceleration caused by US trade policy to further reduce Eurozone inflation in the months ahead, allowing for ECB easing to 1.5% or lower by year end.
- China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index data were weaker than expected for April, and Bloomberg data show a nearly 50% decline in container volume leaving China for the United States in the second half of April. This suggests the real pain of the trade war is just beginning to be felt.
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Published on May 2, 2025.
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