Summary
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The United States and Iran agreed to a framework that facilitates additional negotiations and extends the ceasefire. The agreement is positive, but normalizing Strait of Hormuz shipping could take months. While the most contentious topics remain unresolved, Lazard Geopolitical Advisory sees very limited risk of a return to hostilities on the scale seen in March.
- At its first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the Federal Open Market Committee delivered a “hawkish hold.” Half of participants expected US rate hikes in 2026, but I do not expect any hikes this year or next.
- China’s macro data were weaker than expected, except for industrial production. Absent major structural reforms to strengthen the social safety net, put a floor under house prices, and boost consumer sentiment, I expect China’s economic data to remain weak.
Important Information
Published on 18 June 2026.
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