Übersicht
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The apparent breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire is a reminder of the fragility of the framework agreed last month. Strategic energy reserves have been drawn to minimum operational levels in some cases, which could lead to a much sharper surge in prices if hostilities return to levels seen in March.
- US headline inflation is likely to decelerate in June given falling energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, will likely remain just under 3% on a year-on-year basis. Looking beyond June, rising semiconductor prices could add to inflationary pressures, and a reacceleration of rental rates could drive higher shelter inflation late in 2026.
- China’s real GDP growth for Q2 is expected to slow to 4.5%, while the monthly macro data are likely to present an even less flattering picture. Retail sales are likely to decline slightly from a year ago and investments in fixed assets and property are likely to decline materially. China’s record-high trade surplus could be the one bright spot.
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Published on 10 July 2026.
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