Übersicht
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The economic impact of the US government shutdown is likely to be immaterial to the extent it lasts only a few days. But if there is a permanent reduction in headcount across agencies, employment and GDP statistics could be negatively impacted.
- In the absence of a major domestic fiscal stimulus program, I expect China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index data to remain weak in the months ahead as the US trade war bites further into sentiment and activity.
- Japan’s Tankan survey results were resilient, but the impact of US tariffs remains apparent in segments of the manufacturing outlook.
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Published on October 3, 2025.
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