Summary
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The US Court of International Trade ruled that tariffs imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal, but other statutes allow presidential tariff authority. In my view, a 10% tariff on most countries—with higher rates on China—remains the likely "end game."
- The fiscal package passed by the US House of Representatives is expected to add at least $3 trillion to US deficits over the next decade; I am concerned the US—and some other developed countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios—may be pushing the limits of bond market tolerance.
- US labor market data in the coming week will be important to gauge tariff effects on employment, following improvements in both the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Conference Board Consumer Confidence.
- China's PMI data in the next week could indicate how materially US tariffs have affected Chinese companies; China's economic data overall deteriorated in April.
Important Information
Published on May 30, 2025.
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