Summary
Each week, I provide my views on the global macroeconomic environment, with a look ahead to the coming week and a look back at the previous one. Breaking down the top macro headlines around the world, I explain the key implications for investors—and what I think the mainstream news outlets could be missing. This week’s highlights include:
- The United States and United Kingdom announced the outlines of a trade agreement. The tariff rate across all UK exports is unlikely to decline materially as a result, which could be seen as a negative signal for countries with less close relations with the United States.
- The Fed held interest rates steady as expected, highlighting expectations for increasing tension between its mandates to maintain price stability and maximize employment. I expect no rate cuts in 2025 while futures markets suggest 70 basis points of easing.
- China’s total exports and imports were stronger than expected in April, but China’s exports to the United States fell significantly as tariffs cut into customer demand.
Important Information
Published on May 9, 2025.
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