Executive Summary
As we reach the midpoint of 2026, the global investment landscape looks meaningfully different than at the start of the year. Iran continues to dominate headlines—but the more consequential shifts are structural.
Read each section for a deeper analysis of the trends, risks, and opportunities shaping each region and asset class.
Three Core Convictions
The US dollar is likely to weaken; the relative performance of non-US equities is likely to strengthen; developed market yield curves will likely steepen.
United States
While AI-driven tailwinds continue to lift US equity market performance, underlying economic resiliency seems increasingly dubious.
China
China’s apparent stability masks deeper vulnerabilities that I do not believe can be resolved without meaningful government intervention.
Eurozone
Europe’s anticipated 2026 recovery was derailed by the Iran war but I believe increased defense spending brightens the region’s long-term growth prospects.
Japan
Japan’s corporate reform agenda continues to bear fruit, while rising rates could contribute to the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar and other currencies.
Investment Implications
As allocators recalibrate, I anticipate a rotation away from US equities, growing demand for EM debt, and heightened interest in real assets.
